Switch 2 Pre-Order Shipments in Japan Estimated at Over 1.2 Million Units

30 May 2025
Nintendo Switch 2
5 min.
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Switch 2 Pre-Order Shipments in Japan Estimated at Over 1.2 Million Units

Summary:

Nintendo is poised to deliver one of the most significant console launches in Japanese history with the release of the Switch 2. Through consolidated data from the My Nintendo Store pre-order lotteries and allocations from major Japanese retailers like Amazon Japan and Yodobashi Camera, estimates now suggest over 1.2 million units will be available for day one. This staggering number comes from careful breakdowns of success rates and stock allocations across various system configurations, such as the Japanese-Language Mario Kart World set, the standalone system, and the Multi-Language version. While the second lottery saw lower success rates compared to the first, the combined output across both lotteries alone accounts for nearly 800,000 units. Adding in retailer allocations brings the forecast total to 1,227,670 systems ready for launch. All of these units are expected to be delivered at launch on June 5, 2025. While not definitive, this estimate gives us the clearest picture yet of Nintendo’s ambitious rollout plans and its potential to dominate the Japanese gaming market in 2025.

Switch 2’s launch momentum in Japan

Anticipation is building at a rapid pace in Japan as Nintendo prepares to release the Switch 2. With pre-orders already underway, data emerging from multiple sources shows that this could be one of the biggest console launches the country has ever seen. Japanese gamers have historically supported Nintendo strongly at launch, and the Switch 2 looks like it will follow the same trend—only now on an even larger scale. From buzz on forums to surging application numbers for pre-order lotteries, the energy around the launch is undeniable.

Understanding Nintendo’s lottery pre-order model

Rather than using a traditional first-come-first-serve approach, Nintendo has opted for a lottery system through its My Nintendo Store in Japan. This method helps reduce website crashes, scalping, and logistical nightmares, allowing a broader set of customers a fair chance to buy. Applicants enter the lottery during a set window and are notified if they’re selected. While this process doesn’t guarantee everyone will secure a console, it allows Nintendo to manage inventory allocation and consumer expectations more smoothly.

My Nintendo Store pre-order performance

The first two lotteries for the Switch 2 via the My Nintendo Store offer revealing insights into customer demand and availability. The first round drew overwhelming interest and distributed over 500,000 units. The second round followed with roughly half that amount, allocating 281,426 systems. Combined, these two lotteries alone represent nearly 800,000 units destined for early adopters in Japan. This level of pre-launch allocation speaks volumes about Nintendo’s supply chain preparedness and its intent to satisfy as much early demand as possible.

Declining success rates in the second lottery

Despite the excitement, success rates for hopeful customers dipped in the second round. Only 6.6% of applicants for the Japanese-Language Mario Kart World set were selected. Even more striking, just 3.3% managed to secure the standalone Japanese-Language Switch 2 system. On the flip side, the Multi-Language system variant saw a success rate of 62.3%, making it far more accessible. These stats suggest Nintendo may be prioritizing the more versatile version in its rollout strategy, perhaps aiming for broader regional compatibility and resell value.

System variant preferences and availability

Japanese gamers had multiple system options to choose from in the pre-order lotteries, but not all were created equal in terms of availability. The Mario Kart World set, an enticing bundle aimed at collectors and families, was predictably in high demand but limited in supply. The standalone model faced similar scarcity. However, the Multi-Language variant emerged as a standout, likely due to its wider appeal beyond Japanese-speaking users. This model’s much higher availability has become a key factor in boosting the overall numbers of confirmed pre-order shipments.

Breakdown of console allocation figures

Based on available data from both My Nintendo Store lotteries, we can calculate a combined allocation of 799,413 units. The first lottery accounted for 517,987 systems, while the second distributed 281,426. These estimates are drawn from publicly available survey results and cross-referenced by extrapolating success rates against known lottery application figures. Even though this doesn’t represent the full extent of Nintendo’s production, it paints a clear picture of aggressive stock distribution for the Switch 2 in Japan.

Additional inventory from major Japanese retailers

Outside of Nintendo’s official platform, major Japanese retailers like Amazon Japan and Yodobashi Camera are also expected to deliver substantial inventory. Estimates suggest these channels will contribute another 428,257 systems to the day one pool. While exact breakdowns per retailer remain speculative, the cumulative number strengthens the case for this being one of Nintendo’s most aggressive product launches ever on Japanese soil. These partnerships are key to making the console available in both physical stores and online storefronts countrywide.

Estimated total day one shipments

When tallying the 799,413 units from the My Nintendo Store lotteries and the 428,257 units allocated to other retailers, the total day one shipment in Japan is expected to reach 1,227,670 consoles. This figure is staggering and positions the Switch 2 launch among the highest in Japan’s gaming history. Though the number is still an estimate, it’s backed by strong data points and aligns with industry expectations for a major platform release from Nintendo.

How Japan’s launch compares historically

Japan has seen massive console launches before—from the original Famicom to the Nintendo DS and the PlayStation 2. However, surpassing the 1.2 million unit mark at launch sets a new standard. The original Switch launched in 2017 with more modest numbers due to limited supply, making this new release an even bigger milestone. If Nintendo achieves this volume, the Switch 2 will join the ranks of the most impactful hardware launches in Japanese history, both in raw numbers and public excitement.

What this means ahead of the June 5 release

With all pre-orders from the lotteries and retailers scheduled for delivery on June 5, the scale of this operation is massive. Logistics, warehousing, last-mile delivery, and launch events must all align perfectly to meet the expectations of over a million customers. Nintendo’s coordination efforts seem robust, and the buzz suggests a successful rollout is within reach. All eyes will be on Japan that week as the country welcomes the Switch 2 in record-breaking fashion.

Conclusion

All signs point toward the Switch 2 becoming a landmark launch for Nintendo in Japan. The combination of high lottery demand, massive retailer involvement, and organized fulfillment sets this release apart. While not every hopeful buyer may get their hands on one right away, the estimated 1.2 million units give a strong foundation for ongoing availability and momentum. June 5 will mark more than just a release date—it’s shaping up to be a celebration of what might be Nintendo’s most ambitious console debut to date.

FAQs
  • How many Switch 2 units were allocated in the My Nintendo Store lotteries?
    • Approximately 799,413 units were allocated across the first two lottery rounds.
  • Which Switch 2 system variant had the highest pre-order success rate?
    • The Multi-Language version had the highest success rate at 62.3%.
  • When is the Switch 2 launching in Japan?
    • All pre-orders from the current lotteries and retail channels are scheduled for launch delivery on June 5, 2025.
  • How many Switch 2 units are expected for Japan on day one?
    • The combined estimate suggests a total of 1,227,670 units will be available for launch.
  • Is this the biggest console launch in Japanese history?
    • Based on current numbers, it could be one of the biggest—if not the biggest—console launches ever in Japan.
Sources
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